I must confess that I still feel extremely angry about the
outcome of the absurd and unnecessary EU “referendum” yet I am beginning to
think that the UK might remain in the EU after all. I put the chances of this possibility at
about 30 % for the following reasons:
i) The
political, economic, cultural, and also scientific damage to the UK has already
begun, and is becoming more widely recognized even among those who voted to
leave. Will there be more money for the
NHS or other public services? Rather
unlikely with slower economic growth and even a recession in the offing.
ii) Within the
governing Conservative Party that caused this mess there is a majority of MPs
who wish to remain in the EU. Do they
really want to press the article 50 self destruct button for the UK?
iii) The legal
challenge to the use of royal prerogative to trigger article 50 exposes the
absurdity of potentially far reaching constitutional change undertaken by
accident without parliamentary scrutiny or approval. If the UK really is a parliamentary democracy
(and this formed the basis of widespread unease with the extent of EU
legislative powers) then it would be strange if the UK parliament were now
effectively excluded from this process.
iv) After
triggering article 50 there would be many years of wasted effort and resources
put into the process of leaving the EU to create a weaker and more isolated
(and isolationist) UK. These are years
that could be spent on more productive and useful aims such as investing in the
technologies of the future rather than splurging on consultancy and legal fees
(there are always some beneficiaries from a bad decision).
v) The UK’s new
Prime Minister Theresa May has appointed three leading advocates for the Leave campaign
to senior positions overseeing the Brexit negotiations (the so-called three
Brexiteers comprising Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson). Is this a question of political balance for
senior ministerial appointments or a Machiavellian plot to ensure that the
negotiations fail? As a Remain advocate
it is unlikely that May really does want to damage the future of the UK and her
own political legacy to boot. There are
already signs that the idiocy of the Brexiteers is bearing fruit: Davis claims that trade opportunities for the UK are ten times greater outside the EU but
as contributors to The Financial Times
have pointed out, this must surely involve trade negotiations with another
planet. It is time to push back against the
advance of post-factual politics.
